We are continuing to monitor the development chances for a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has now given this spot a medium (40%) chance of becoming a tropical storm or depression within the next week.

At the moment, the area is shrouded in Saharan dust, which is limiting the amount of showers and storms surrounding it. That will likely change as it approaches the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week and moves into a more favorable environment for development. 

Weather models are still not in agreement about whether or not this disturbance will form. There is even more uncertainty about what the potential track of a named storm that develops would look like.

Regardless, this disturbance is currently around 2,500 miles away from Florida and we are just watching it at this time. Debby is the next name up on our 2024 storm naming list.

After a long stretch of inactivity, we are now keeping an eye on one spot in the Atlantic with a chance of formation in the next week. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic will interact with an approaching area of disturbed weather over the next few days. As this disturbance approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week, it will have a small opportunity to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center is giving it a low (20%) chance of formation, with those odds primarily kicking in after the weekend. At the moment, there is low confidence among our forecast models that this system will form and it is too early to speculate on any potential path if it were to do so.

This disturbance is located in a region where we typically see cyclone development in the month of August.

Saharan dust (among other factors) continues to keep the remainder of the Atlantic quiet for now.