We are continuing to monitor a disturbance over the Lesser Antilles that will have a chance to develop into a tropical depression over the western Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico within the next week. The NHC has still given it a medium (60%) chance of cyclone formation in the next seven days.

A cluster of showers and storms have increased in presence around the tropical wave today. However, a low-pressure center has not formed within this area. 

Models are in some disagreement regarding whether this system will develop and the ultimate track it would take. If this disturbance forms, there are two potential paths it would likely follow. Path one would take it into the eastern Gulf as a relatively weak rain-maker. Path two would take it east of the state as a stronger and more organized storm. 

The southeast U.S. coast and central/eastern Gulf coast will need to monitor this system’s progression over the next few days. Odds are increasing that this will bring increased rain chances to Central Florida toward the end of the weekend and the start of next week.

The next name on our storm naming list will be “Debby”.

We are continuing to monitor the development chances for a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has now given this spot a medium (40%) chance of becoming a tropical storm or depression within the next week.

At the moment, the area is shrouded in Saharan dust, which is limiting the amount of showers and storms surrounding it. That will likely change as it approaches the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week and moves into a more favorable environment for development. 

Weather models are still not in agreement about whether or not this disturbance will form. There is even more uncertainty about what the potential track of a named storm that develops would look like.

Regardless, this disturbance is currently around 2,500 miles away from Florida and we are just watching it at this time. Debby is the next name up on our 2024 storm naming list.