There is now a high (70%) chance of formation within the next seven days for our tropical wave over Hispaniola.

It is too early to accurately predict the exact intensity and track of this system. This disturbance’s interaction with Cuba’s terrain (or lack thereof) will have big implications on its ultimate path/strength

Floridians should be monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. Regardless of formation, it has the potential to bring us a lot of rainfall to end the weekend and begin the following workweek. These rain estimates (shown above) will likely change and shift around as models come to a consensus on Invest 97L’s track.

We are continuing to monitor a disturbance over the Lesser Antilles that will have a chance to develop into a tropical depression over the western Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico within the next week. The NHC has still given it a medium (60%) chance of cyclone formation in the next seven days.

A cluster of showers and storms have increased in presence around the tropical wave today. However, a low-pressure center has not formed within this area. 

Models are in some disagreement regarding whether this system will develop and the ultimate track it would take. If this disturbance forms, there are two potential paths it would likely follow. Path one would take it into the eastern Gulf as a relatively weak rain-maker. Path two would take it east of the state as a stronger and more organized storm. 

The southeast U.S. coast and central/eastern Gulf coast will need to monitor this system’s progression over the next few days. Odds are increasing that this will bring increased rain chances to Central Florida toward the end of the weekend and the start of next week.

The next name on our storm naming list will be “Debby”.