There is only one area of disturbed weather we are keeping tabs on in the Atlantic. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic will approach conditions that are better suited for development near the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles. This region now has a medium (40%) chance of formation over the next seven days.

Weather model support for cyclone development has slightly increased this morning, with most of them bringing the system near or north of the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. From there, high pressure to its north would play a big role in its future path. The most popular scenario among these models shows this area of high pressure sliding east, allowing the storm to turn north before reaching the United States. While this is the current trend, it is very early in the forecast process and this could easily change.

If this becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, it would likely take the name “Ernesto”.

Over land, Tropical Depression Debby is continuing to weaken as it brings heavy rain and gusty winds to the northeast. Debby should become a post-tropical depression before the workweek ends.

We now have Tropical Depression Four off the southern coastline of Cuba.

Tropical Depression Four is expected to pull north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as it likely strengthens into a tropical storm this weekend. “Debby” would be the next name assigned to this system.

Our latest models have shifted slightly west to account for where the center of this tropical depression was located. This is also why the forecast cone has been nudged slightly west. Only time will tell if this trend holds. Regardless it is important to remember that impacts can extend far outside the cone.

Tropical Storm watches remain in effect for central Florida with warnings in effect for southwest Florida. The strongest winds of this system would likely arrive on Sunday.

Additionally, storm surge watches remain in effect for most of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Depending on how close and strong this storm tracks, these forecasts will likely be heavily adjusted over the next few days.

Heavy rain and flash flooding remain the primary hazards of this system. At the moment, Sunday appears to be the day where most of these rainfall totals build.