We are continuing to keep tabs a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic. This tropical wave has a medium (60%) chance of development over the next seven days but is unlikely to form within the next two days.

Weather models are still showing signs that this wave will attempt to organize as it approaches or reaches the Lesser Antilles. The American (GFS) and European (ECMFW) models each show this on Tuesday. 

Until it does or does not form, it’s difficult to determine where it would ultimately go next. The majority of weather models (not all) recurve this system to the north before it reaches the United States. Whether or not this happens will depend on the strength of this system, and how a variety of upper-level steering factors time out. 

We have plenty of time to monitor this, as it is roughly 3,000 miles away from our coast. The next name on this year’s storm naming list will be “Ernesto”.

There is only one area of disturbed weather we are keeping tabs on in the Atlantic. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic will approach conditions that are better suited for development near the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles. This region now has a medium (40%) chance of formation over the next seven days.

Weather model support for cyclone development has slightly increased this morning, with most of them bringing the system near or north of the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. From there, high pressure to its north would play a big role in its future path. The most popular scenario among these models shows this area of high pressure sliding east, allowing the storm to turn north before reaching the United States. While this is the current trend, it is very early in the forecast process and this could easily change.

If this becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, it would likely take the name “Ernesto”.

Over land, Tropical Depression Debby is continuing to weaken as it brings heavy rain and gusty winds to the northeast. Debby should become a post-tropical depression before the workweek ends.