Hurricane Florence went through an eyewall replacement cycle early this morning. During this time the inner eyewall collapses and become ragged for several hours as a new eyewall reforms outside of the original. During this process it is normal for the hurricane to loose intensity as was noted this morning but once this process it complete it begins to ramp up in strength once again.

As of mid-morning on Tuesday the eye still has a somewhat ragged appearance as this process completes. It is likely to start regaining strength later this afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains unchanged with a major hurricane moving onshore early on Friday morning along the North Carolina coastline. The exact path will continue to shift back and forth as things evolve so much of South Carolina is still in the cone.

A hurricane watch has now been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border southward to Edisto Beach in South Carolina.

To the right of the center will be the areas affected by the storm surge. The sounds in North Carolina could be hit especially hard with a storm surge. The current forecast calls for a surge between 10-15 feet in these sounds. Further down the coast near Wilmington the surge could be between 6-10 feet. This will change as the exact intensity and track shift over the coming days.

The various models have been suggesting for days that a ridge will build to the over the Great Lakes and will cause Florence to stall and begin to meander. There is growing concern that this could happen close the coast which would allow Florence to continue to tap energy from the Atlantic Ocean.

The rainfall totals from a stalled system along the Carolina coastline are disturbing. It is important not to focus on exact totals but rather the potential of extremely large amounts of rain that would produce catastrophic flooding. Exact amounts will shift depending on many factors including the forward motion of the hurricane after landfall.

This is a particularly dangerous situation and it is important for those ordered to evacuate follow the orders from emergency officials.

Satellite imagery today has shown a very well developed and dangerous hurricane. Even before the Hurricane Hunter arrived inside the storm earlier today we knew this hurricane had undergone rapid intensification, it was just a matter of just how much had it grown by.

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft left this morning from Bermuda and flew south into Hurricane Florence. What they found was a major hurricane with winds up to 130mph sustained and a pressure that had fallen significantly from their previous flight on Sunday. The plane made two passes through the storm. On their first pass they recorded a central pressure at 947mb. On their second pass through the center they recorded an even lower pressure at 943mb which indicates the storm is continuing to strengthen.

Water temperatures will continue to support more intensification over the coming days as SST temperatures are approaching 85° F.  Wind shear will remain light over the system as well giving a very favorable environment to support a major hurricane.

Models have been showing more consistency from run to run but there still remains some differences between some of the major models. The ECMWF ensemble members continues to zero in with a landfall along the Carolina coastline with only a handful of ensemble runs going either north or south of the Carolina coast. There is growing indication also that once this storm makes landfall that steering currents will weaken and this storm could linger for days causing devastating flooding.

For the short term the strong ridge that has formed in the northwest Atlantic will remain in place keeping Florence on a westerly track with a gradual turn NW as it nears the western edge of the ridge. With the warm waters and low wind shear Florence should be able to maintain its major hurricane status with fluctuations in wind speeds mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles that it will begin to experience over the next couple of days.

The tropics continue to show more activity with Hurricane Isaac heading in the direction of the Leeward Islands. Once it reaches the Caribbean the wind shear will increase and most model guidance suggest a steady decrease in intensity there after.

Further out into the Atlantic we have Helene which is should be of no concern to anyone as it turns and heads north over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Today Invest 95L was designated in the western Caribbean. NHC is putting a 50% chance development on this area over the next 5 days. This disturbance will continue moving westward toward Texas by the weekend.