We have been watching Hurricane Humberto, but now we have an additional tropical depression and newly formed Tropical Storm Imelda. Tropical Storm Imelda has quickly flared up today and is already bringing rain along the SE coast of Texas from Port Lavaca to near Port Arthur, TX. Advisories were initiated at 12PM CDT today with winds speeds of 35mph.

The main threat will be heavy rains as this system slowly drifts northward onshore. Rainfall amounts will be heaviest to the east of the center with widespread areas of 4 to 7 inches of rain but could see pockets over 12+ inches of rain. This will likely cause significant issues for the flood prone areas around Houston.

Humberto continues to grown in size and strength with top winds of 100mph. Hurricane force winds extend out 60 miles and tropical storm force winds extend out 175 miles. Even with the track moving NW of Bermuda, the size of the wind field will bring tropical storm force winds and possibly hurricane force winds to the island.

We also have the newly formed Tropical Depression #10 in the Atlantic. It has shown persistent storms and growing organization overnight and is expected to continue to thrive in a low wind shear environment with warm SST. The only limiting factor for this system is some dry air it will have to contend with over the next couple of days. This system is shown to intensify in vast majority of models as it moves WNW and to the north of the Caribbean. It will continue on this path until it reaches a weakness in the ridge allowing it to turn northward.

A small but vigorous tropical wave has moved across the Atlantic surrounded by large amounts of dry air. Even with unfavorable conditions of dry air the upper level winds have diminished enough over the past 36 hours that the trough of low pressure has shown persistent convection.

Invest 94L will continue to move WNW and conditions will remain only marginally conducive to see anymore development. The biggest impacts will be an increase in moisture and storm activity along its path and along the Florida coastline over the next several days.

Computer models are in very good agreement showing the disturbance paralleling the east coast of Florida as it is picked up by a digging upper level  trough moving into the eastern US by mid-week. This should keep the heaviest rains along the coast or just offshore.

For now, the disturbance has handled the dry air but as upper level winds increase as it begins to interact with the approaching trough conditions will not be conducive for development. This does start to signal the change in the season where tropical waves begin their trek across the Atlantic and we must watch for the development of these as the Atlantic waters warm and conditions become more ideal.