The tropics are temporarily quiet with no tropical activity expected for the next 48 hours. Looking a little further out, over the next 5 days, a non tropical low pressure may develop in the central Atlantic. Models are indicating this would stay well east of us.

Dry air in the mid levels has only allowed a few isolated showers each day. It will remain in place this weekend, but tropical moisture returns next week.

On Monday deeper moisture begins to move in over the state, increasing our rain chances. We could definitely use some rain as we are running over 5″ below normal since September 1st.

We are past the peak of hurricane season but October is still a busy month in the tropics. Our focus of development shifts from the Atlantic, to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Some long term models are hinting at development in these areas during the next couple of weeks. But as you know, that far out things can change quite a bit.

There are 2 areas with disorganized shower activity that we are watching. Any development in these locations would be slow to occur.

Lorenzo has weakened to a category 2 hurricane and is racing off to the northeast. It will pass west of the Azores and then near Ireland and the United Kingdom later this week.