We’re on the home stretch with only three weeks left in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It’s the time of year that we can start resting a little easier, as tropical activity decreases quite a bit. On average, a named storm forms in November seven out of every ten years. Of those storms, one strengthens into a hurricane roughly every other year.

While the chance of a hurricane impacting the U.S. this time of year is very low, it has happened before – three times in fact, since 1851. The most recent occurrence being Hurricane Kate in late November of 1985, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

There aren’t any areas that we’re currently watching in the Atlantic basin, and it should remain quiet over the next few days. Late next week however, one of the stronger cold fronts of the fall season will be moving south over the Gulf of Mexico and it’s possible an area of low pressure will try to spin up along it. We’ll be watching model trends over the weekend and will check back in with any updates.

Above: 0Z GFS Sea Level Pressure valid next Thursday evening 11/14.

Above: 0Z Euro Sea Level Pressure valid next Thursday night 11/14.

In 2017, only one named storm formed in the North Atlantic Basin in November. It became Tropical Storm Rina and reached maximum wind speeds of 60 mph. The storm remained over the open waters of the Atlantic, not impacting any land areas.

Climatology has shown a named storm typically forms 7 out of 10 years in November. Of those storms, every other year one strengthens into a hurricane. Activity in the Atlantic Basin for 2017 was well above average. This is the year we saw 6 major hurricanes, including Harvey, Irma and Maria.