Things are pretty quiet across Atlantic right now – as we would expect for this time of the year.

June is usually a pretty quiet month for tropical activity. Only 6% of named storms since 1950 have formed during the month of June. The areas we usually see development during the first month or two of hurricane season is close to home, with storms developing in the Gulf and western Caribbean.

At the moment, there’s an area of disturbed weather over the southern Gulf and western Caribbean, but a broad trough over the eastern U.S. is producing quite a bit of wind shear over these typical formation zones. Don’t expect any areas of concern for at least the next 5-7 days.

Whew! After a very active stretch over the last few weeks, it’s easy to forget we’re only 10 days in to the official hurricane season. With Arthur, Bertha, and then Cristobal last week, it was the earliest on record that we’ve made it to three named storms in the Atlantic. On average, we don’t have three named storms until early August.

Despite the quick start, you’ll find it comforting to know that there isn’t any correlation between early-season tropical activity and how active the entire season ends up being. That being said, the ingredients are in place for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year thanks to numerous favorable factors – including warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), weaker trade winds, weaker vertical wind shear, and a stronger African monsoon season.

For now it looks like we’re finally settling into the usually quiet stretch of hurricane season. Since 1950, only 6% of named storms have formed during the month of June.

There’s an area or two we’ll keep in an eye on in the middle of Atlantic over the next week, but nothing that appears to be a threat.