A nice early taste of Fall for many along the Gulf Coast over the next couple days. Pumpkin spice lattes, hoodies, and here in Tampa, Stanley Cup Champion parades! Go Bolts!

My point is it can be pretty easy to mentally ‘check out’ in regards to hurricane season this time of year. As much as we would all love to turn the page, the reality is that it’s no time to be letting our guard down.

October can, and often does, produce dangerous tropical systems. In fact, on average one hurricane forms every year during the month of October. Since 1950, 16 October hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. – the most recent being Hurricane Michael in 2018. While almost any area is still fair game, more than half of those storms hit Florida.

As cold fronts begin moving further south this time of the year, they often cause areas of low pressure to spin up over the southern Gulf and western Caribbean. These are the hot spots for tropical development in October. In some ways, it’s a more dangerous time of the season than August and September because storms form quickly and closer to home leaving little lead time for preparation.

The National Hurricane Center will be monitoring the western Caribbean over the next several days, as some models are hinting at an area of low pressure (or even two) developing over the next 5-7 days. It’s nothing to worry about right now, but it’s a reminder that the season isn’t quite over and we need to stay prepared. We’ll keep you updated in the coming days.

It’s been an incredibly busy September in the tropics, with 10 named storms forming during the first 18 days of the month. Things have finally calmed down this week, and all signs point toward this lull in activity lasting through the end of the month.

Although it may be quiet now, it’s certainly not time to pack it in and let our guard down. October can, and often does, generate problematic storms. It can almost be a more dangerous time of the season because storms are more likely to form close to home in southern Gulf and western Caribbean, which can leave us with very little prep time.

As of right now, there’s not much hinting at any potential threat during the first week or so of October, but that can change fast. We’ll be here with you the rest of the season.