It’s looking more and more likely that at least a tropical depression will form in the western Gulf before the end of the work week, but we can completely rule out a weak Tropical Storm Claudette just yet. Either way, the big issue is going to be heavy rain for parts of the northern Gulf Coast over Father’s Day Weekend.

Hurricane Hunters are currently scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday. Between now and then, the odds of development are somewhat low as land interaction continues. However, as it begins to move north late Thursday and into Friday we should start to see some development.

Models are in fairly good agreement that several inches of rain will be possible east of where the center comes ashore. That should bring the heaviest rainfall up through southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and parts of Alabama. Keep in mind, the rain that does fall in these locations will come down fast – within the span of 24-36 hours. So, localized flash flooding will be a big concern.

On Monday, a spinup along an old frontal boundary off the coast of North Carolina took on some tropical characteristics and has now been designated as Tropical Depression Two. This will likely become Tropical Storm Bill as it moves away from the U.S. over the next couple days.

The main focus continues to be the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf. The National Hurricane center has increased development odds to 70% over the next 5 days. It’s becoming increasingly more likely that we’ll have either a tropical depression or weak tropical storm (Claudette) moving toward the northern Gulf Coast for the weekend. Regardless of development though, the main issue will be heavy rainfall. Pinpointing where the heaviest rain will be the goal over the next few days, but models have been honing in on parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama for the potential of several inches.