Hurricane Elsa is a little weaker this morning and struggling to stay organized as it continues to race WNW over 30 mph. As of the 5am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds were 75 mph with higher gusts. 

Hurricane Hunters are headed into the storm to further investigate the storm today while hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of Puerto Rico, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Jamaica. 

Elsa will likely begin to slow down as it reaches the western end of the steering ridge of high pressure. Some weakening is also possible as Elsa travels over the mountainous terrain of Cuba on Sunday. 

There is slightly better model agreement this morning but still a lot of questions on the exact track and Florida impacts. It’s still too early to discuss specifics and the forecast track WILL CHANGE. Right now, keep in mind the Tampa Bay area remains in the cone of uncertainty and it’s certainly possible we could have a tropical storm off our coast Tuesday/Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates.

Elsa moved through the southern Lesser Antilles on Friday. Wind gusts topped 90mph in Barbados producing quite a bit of damage on the island. The storm continues to race through the eastern Caribbean Sea at 30mph!

Expect Elsa’s strength to remain fairly steady over the next 24 hours. Beyond that point, how it navigates through and around the island of Hispanola (Haiti/DR) will be crucial. Tall mountain peaks on that island have a long history of shredding storms. Once we see how that plays out (by Sunday morning), we’ll have a much better idea of what, if any, impacts there will be for Florida. Be sure to check back for updates through the weekend.