Tropical Storm Elsa remains a lopsided storm Tuesday morning with most of the active weather on the east side. It is already bringing impacts to parts of South Florida and tropical storm force wind gusts have been recorded in Key West and Sand Key. 

As of the 5am advisory, top winds were at 60 mph and Elsa is moving NNW at 12 mph. While the forecast track hasn’t changed much and the thinking holds for a storm to parallel the coastline, the latest advisory features some strengthening over the next 12-18 hours.

While the official National Hurricane Center forecast keeps Elsa a strong tropical storm at its nearest pass to the Tampa Bay region, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Elsa could reach hurricane strength briefly before landall late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The key factors here are how well does the storm battle some upper level wind shear? How much does Elsa intensify over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf?

Because of this, a hurricane watch has been issued for the west-central and Big Bend coast of Florida from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River.

Locally, expect weather to deteriorate this afternoon from south to north with rain spreading across the region and winds ramping up. 3-5” of rain is expected and likely to cause at least some localized street and minor river flooding. People in flood-prone and low-lying areas should be prepared to seek higher ground should flash flooding become an issue. 

Elsa will also bring strong winds to the area. Sustained winds 30-40 mph will be common with higher gusts (50-70 mph) possible near the coast. At least spotty power outages and downed trees are possible as the weather worsens. Loose items around your home should be brought in to prevent it from being blown away by the wind. Boats should be properly secured as well. Also, keep in mind, strong winds are likely to shut down the Sunshine Skyway Bridge later today. 

Additionally, rain bands from Elsa could cause brief spin up tornadoes. Be sure to have a way of getting weather alerts should warnings be issued.

The risk for storm surge increases overnight Wednesday morning as the storm passes by and winds shift onshore. Storm surge could reach as high as 3-5 feet above normal high tide along coastal areas.

As of 5pm Monday, Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 45 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba and will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico this evening.

While there will be some westerly shear across the eastern Gulf for the storm to deal with, some strengthening is certainly not out of the question. In fact, most model guidance is suggesting some slight strengthening as it moves north. While the chances are slim, it’s not out of the question that Elsa reaches hurricane intensity at some point. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect up and down Florida’s west coast.

There is high forecast confidence that Elsa will track near or just off Florida’s west coast as it moves north. With it being a lopsided system, this will bring the threat for localized heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes to most of the Florida peninsula. It has been pretty wet around the state recently, so additional heavy rain could bring about areas of freshwater flooding.

While gusty winds will be present in many rain bands, the strongest wind gusts (generally 50-70+ mph) will be confined to areas closest to the coast.

The extent of coastal flooding from storm surge is still a bit in question at this moment, simply because track differences of 40-50 miles can make a big difference in the amount of surge at particular locations. This is due to the angle and duration of onshore flow. At this point, it would be wise for those in coastal areas to be prepared for the possibility of up to 3-5 feet of water above normal tide levels. The tide will be coming in late Wednesday night, which will play a role as well. For those that remember the coastal flooding we had during Tropical Storm Eta last November, this could end up being very similar.