Tropical Depression Fred continues to limp along the northern coast of Cuba this morning. It remains a poorly organized system for now, but some organization and slight strengthening is expected to take place through the weekend.

Most of the convection is still displaced to the east of the center thanks to continued westerly shear. While that shear is only expected to weaken slightly, Fred is moving into a very moist environment and will be over the warmest water it has had during its entire journey. Putting all that together, it’s likely that Fred becomes a weak tropical storm again at some point.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, while a tropical storm watch is in place extends north along Florida’s southwest coast to Englewood. In these areas expect periods of heavy rain and gusty winds (up to tropical storm-force) at times on Saturday. The exact track up the coast will play a big role in rainfall totals further north around Tampa Bay. It’s quite possible that the heaviest rain stays offshore. For now plan on at least some increase in rain chances around Tampa Bay on Sunday. Heavy rain and gusty winds should move into the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend late Sunday into Monday.

As expected, the rugged terrain of Hispanola really did a number on Fred – weakening the circulation dramatically over the last 24 hours. As of 11am Thursday, the center of Fred was located just north of the eastern tip of Cuba and max winds were at a generous 35 mph.

While the system will be battling moderate westerly shear, and may possibly have some land interaction with Cuba, over the next day or two. Environmental conditions will be more favorable for at least some restrengthening to take place as Fred approaches South Florida and the Keys as we head into the weekend, especially if the storm moves into the Gulf and stays off Florida’s west coast.

While we have general consensus on a west-northwesterly track followed by a turn to the north-northwest, the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain with outcomes ranging from a dissipating system to a moderate tropical storm. The forecast uncertainty is heightened by the fact that weak systems like this are notoriously tricky to forecast.

At this point, those across Central and South Florida should count on increased rain chances and possible gusty winds at times over the weekend. Beyond that, it’s still to early to pinpoint any specific impacts. We should get a better idea of expected rain totals and wind speeds within the next day or so. At the end of the day, this is not a storm you need to lose any sleep over.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Invest 95L will be following a very similar path to Fred into the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center currently has development odds at 60% over the next five days. While we may see something spin up over the weekend, majority of model guidance doesn’t do a whole lot with it in the long term thanks quite a bit of land interaction. Still, it will need to be watched.