Fred lost its center of circulation early Saturday, but there are signs the storm’s remnants are trying to reorganize. As shear continues to lessen, there is a window for Fred to reform between now and Monday afternoon when it comes ashore along the northern Gulf Coast. Either way, periods of heavy rain will move through northwest Florida and south Alabama on Monday with widespread rain totals of 3-7″ and isolated amounts up to 10″. A few, brief weak tornadoes will also be possible.

Tropical Storm Grace is moving into the northern Caribbean this evening. This is following a very similar track to the one Fred took, which will bring a lot of land interaction into play in the coming days. For now, it’s just something to watch. We’ll keep you posted.

Fred remains disorganized as of Saturday morning as it continues to battle land interaction with Cuba and westerly wind shear. As of 11am, Fred has been downgraded to a remnant low, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Slight strengthening is still forecast as Fred continues to move around the western periphery of a steering ridge of high pressure into a somewhat better environment and could regain tropical storm status by Sunday evening.

The center of Fred will pass well west of Tampa Bay with most of the rain and wind offshore. Outer bands and moisture from Fred will bring periods of showers and storms to the area through Sunday with the heaviest rain along and west of I-75. With a further track to the west, the flooding risk continues to lessen for our area. However, a marginal risk of severe weather exists with a brief tornado possible as Fred passes to our west.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened to Tropical Storm Grace Saturday morning and is looking better organized on satellite imagery. Grace is expected to take a similar track to Fred over the Caribbean Islands where land interaction could keep the system fairly weak. However, South Florida is currently in the cone of uncertainty late next week. While Florida impacts are possible, it is too early to speculate specifics. Stay tuned.