Things have been fairly quiet in the tropical Alantic over the last few weeks and it looks like we’ll keep the trend going to close out the month of July and at least for the first few days of August. The National Hurricane Center predicts tropical development is not expected over the next 5 days.

Along with areas of pockets of higher wind shear, Saharan Dust remains the primary limiting factor across much of the Atlantic keeping things fairly tame. Tropical waves prefer an environment with ample moisture and light wind shear for optimal growth. 

Typically, the plumes of dry, dusty air in the upper parts of the atmosphere works in our favor in the early part of hurricane season. However, its beneficial effects are only temporary. By mid-August, supply of the Saharan Air Layer begins to subside allowing tropical waves a more conducive environment to grow and organize into more formidable systems. This coincides with the peak of the season when water temps are warmest and tropical activity typically increases.

It’s been about four and a half weeks since we last had anything meaningful to track in the Atlantic. Large plumes of Saharan dust, pockets of high wind shear, and even below normal sea-surface temperatures in spots can be thanked for this long quiet stretch. That’s great news, but at the same time we can’t lose sight of the the fact that the most active part of the hurricane still lies ahead.

While it’s likely to stay quiet for at least the next week or two, there are factors in play which could certainly lead to the peak months of the season being more active than normal – most notably the likelihood (65-70% probability) of a gradually strengthening La Niña. La Niña is typically associated with lower than normal levels of wind shear across the Atlantic. This would be three straight years of La Niña conditions during peak hurricane season, which is actually pretty rare.

At the end of the day, nothing changes in how you should prepare. It’s simple, have a plan in place for you and your family that covers all the bases, and you can rest easy whether or not something comes our way.