Despite a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, it looks like any chance at Danielle will have to wait. The 4th named storm on average occurs on August 15th. And with the tropics still in a slumber, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is off to a below average start. However, there’s still some time to go. Remember, hurricane season lasts through November and typically peaks in September. So, things can still turn active as most seasonal predictions called for. 

While it’s not unusual for the season to get off to a quiet start, a relatively uneventful Atlantic Basin through mid August is interesting, especially since there are no signs of significant tropical activity in the long range forecasts. And considering the La Niña conditions driven by below average water temps in the eastern Pacific, the hushed state of affairs in the Atlantic is even more noteworthy. La Niña years traditionally lead to more activity in the Atlantic due to weaker wind shear, allowing more systems to ramp up. 

By now, we typically have had our first hurricane of the season too. But now, 2 and a half months into the season, we haven’t had a hurricane develop yet. Steady plumes of Saharan Dust have been holding down the fort efficiently keeping tropical activity limited in the Atlantic Basin. The drier, dusty air aloft provides an unfavorable environment for tropical formation. And while we know the effectiveness of this Saharan Dust wanes with time, we’ll enjoy its benefits as long as we can.

Activity has gradually begin to pick up across the Atlantic basin in the last week. Back on Sunday, we mentioned a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that had a medium chance for some weak development. However, the large amounts of dry air and Saharan dust across the Central Atlantic have simply proved to be too prohibitive.

There is a new area of interest in the Gulf that has popped up in the last day or so, as a trough of low pressure has developed just offshore of SE Louisiana. Any organization of this will be slow to occur as this moves southwest, and the National Hurricane Center is currently only giving this a 10% chance of development. Regardless, locally heavy rain will be possible along parts of the Texas Coast through the weekend.