It’s now been 52 days since our last named storm in the Atlantic (Colin), making it the third longest gap between named systems dating back to 1995. We’ve also yet to see our first hurricane of the season, despite the average first hurricane occurring on August 11th.

We have a couple areas of interest right now… a tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles and another soon to roll off the coast of Africa. Any development will be slow to occur, and the National Hurricane Center currently gives both of these areas a 20% chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Dry air continues to a major limiting factor so far this season, and there remains an abundance of it across the Atlantic basin. It will likely interfere with the any development of both of these disturbances.

In regards to the wave soon to enter the Caribbean Sea, some recent long-range models have definitely shown some attention-grabbing solutions with a possible hurricane forming in the 7-10 day time frame. It should be noted though that solutions have been wildly inconsistent and certainly not supported by our entire suite of model guidance. This is nothing to be concerned about at the moment. Remember, if there ever is anything you need to be paying attention to, we’ll make sure you know.

While climatology would tell us hurricane season ramps up during the month of August, that hasn’t really been the case this year. Saharan Dust has largely overpowered tropical waves rolling off the coast of Africa. Meanwhile, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have largely been in a slumber. Despite recent Gulf disturbances which initially showed some promise, Danielle has yet to develop. On average, the 4th named storm of the season occurs on August 15th so things are a bit behind schedule.

We’ve now gone 48 days since our last named storm, Colin, making it the third longest gap between named systems dating back since 1995. And we’ve yet to see our first hurricane of the season too despite the average first hurricane occurring on August 11th.

However, recent years have shown things can ramp up in a hurry, especially considering the La Niña conditions. Long range models also support the idea of seeing the tropics starting to wake up. We’re currently monitoring a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands that will continue to move westward in the coming days. While it’ll battle some dry air, tropical development is possible. The National Hurricane Center is now giving it a 20% chance of formation over the next 5 days. Stay tuned.