Well the nearly two month quiet spell in the tropics was fun while it lasted. However, all signs are pointing to things becoming more active in the coming days and weeks. And with the official peak of the season just 2 weeks away, it is no surprise.

It bears noting how unusual it would be to close out the month of August without a single named storm. It hasn’t happened in 25 years. And that was an El Niño year which typically favors quieter activity in the tropics as compared to the typically more active La Niña years, which we are in now. And while an August shutout is a possibility, it will be close as a couple of tropical waves show some promise.

The area with the greatest odds of development is a disturbance over the Atlantic the National Hurricane Center has deemed Invest 91L and given a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days. Some dry air and wind shear could limit short term development. However, both the GFS and Euro models support the disturbance overcoming those factors and possibly developing into a tropical depression as it passes just northwest of the Leeward Islands by the end of the week. It is too early to determine if this area will have any impact on the US but certainly bears close watching.

There is also an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea but the odds are just 20% for development. Additionally, other tropical waves in the central Atlantic and eastern Atlantic similarly have a low end chance of formation over the next 5 days, per the National Hurricane Center. While these aren’t high probabilities, it is certainly a sign the dormant days in the tropics are behind us and we have to be vigilant as things begin heating up across the Atlantic.

For now, it looks like we’ll tack on at least a few more days to our nearly two month-long streak with no named systems in the Atlantic. All good things must come to end though, and signs point toward an uptick in tropical activity as we roll into September.

The environment in the Atlantic should become more favor in the coming weeks, as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) returns to the Atlantic basin. The MJO basically does two things, it lowers wind shear and introduces rising motion which enhances thunderstorm activity. These are two ingredients that we need for tropical development.

Dry air has been a big hindrance for development during this quiet stretch. While that dry air is likely to remain quite prevalent, increase thunderstorm activity and frequent tropical waves rolling off the coast of Africa tend to slowly eat away at it.

So what areas are we going to be watching over the next week or so?

For starters, the wave that has now moved into the Caribbean Sea could begin to gradually organize in the coming days, but there isn’t a whole lot of agreement in our suite of model guidance. And those that do develop the wave have been pretty inconsistent run-to-run. For now, it’s just something we’ll keep tabs on.

Focusing now on the wave in the central Atlantic. It would appear this has a better chance for development as it continues to move west next week, and interacts with a broad area of disorganized showers and storms. Both the Euro and GFS have supported this idea with some consistency in recent runs. If this were to impact any land areas in the Caribbean, it wouldn’t be until late next week. It’s also far, far to early to determine whether or not this could have any impact on the U.S.