September 10th is the statistical peak of hurricane season, when we see the most activity across the Atlantic Basin on average.

By September, atmospheric conditions are typically most favorable for tropical development due to peak sea surface temperatures, less inhibiting dry air and wind shear and more tropical waves emerging from the west coast of Africa. This leads to more named storms and hurricanes this time of year as compared to earlier in the season.

However, despite the usual uptick in tropical activity this time of year, 2022 has proved to be an interesting outlier thusfar after a slow start and a shut-out 0 storms in August for the first time in 25 years. As of today, we’ve had 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, none which have reached major status. For comparison, an average entire hurricane season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of which reach category 3 strength or higher.

Currently, Earl remains a category 2 hurricane in the north Atlantic moving rapidly north and east. Earl is expected to lose its tropical characteristics soon as it goes through extratropical transition. Another tropical wave will emerge from the Cape Verde Islands in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance of formation over the next 5 days. We’ll keep an eye on it but don’t anticipate it being an issue.

While Florida has fared well so far, it’s important to keep in mind we still have more than 2 and a half months to go this hurricane season. On the fifth year anniversary of Hurricane Irma making landfall in Florida, it’s a reminder we need to always be prepared as any one storm could change how we remember this season.

Danielle and Earl formed last week, ending our streak of nearly two months with no named storms in the Atlantic. Danielle remains no threat to land as it loops around North Atlantic shipping lanes in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Earl has made it’s turn to the north, and is could strengthen into a major hurricane by the end of the week. The only area of land remotely in its path is Bermuda, but there is a large consensus among model guidance that it will miss the island to the east.

There a couple additional areas we’re watching closer to Africa. While it’s possible we get an additional named storm or two the bottom line is that steering currents are really working in our favor right now and aren’t set up to bring anything toward the Caribbean or U.S. for at least the next 1-2 weeks.

The statistical peak of the season is coming up this Saturday, September 10 and we still have another 6-8 weeks of what can be the most dangerous part of hurricane season. So, despite the lack of threats right now, stay prepared and we’ll be here with you the rest of the way as always!