A well-defined area of low pressure churned in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. While it is non-tropical in nature, the potential for it to become subtropical or even tropical over the next 24-36 hours prompted its designation of Invest 98L. The National Hurricane Center is giving the low a 20% chance of becoming our next tropical depression over the next 48 hours, and a 30% chance in the extended term.

The low has formed along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that has stalled out across northern Florida. This has provided a decent pool of moisture for the low. However, upper level winds are only marginally conducive to development. Sea surface temperatures on the other hand are favorable for development as most of the Gulf is running 1°-2°C above average.

Regardless of development, the low and the associated frontal boundary will bring copious amounts of rainfall to Florida through the middle of the week. Bands of rain and storms will pile up along the peninsula over the next few days, and rain will be heavy at times. There will likely be a widespread 2″-4″ across Central Florida, but there could be some spots that see locally higher amounts.

A rare summer cold front settles into Central Florida Sunday and stalls late in the day. Low pressure will develop along this boundary in the Eastern Gulf and brings the threat for periods of heavy rain to Central Florida early this work week. Anytime low pressure sits over warm water temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 it is worth watching for tropical development. The odds of this low gaining any tropical characteristics are low over the next 5 days. Wind shear is enhanced near this frontal boundary and upper level winds are only marginally favorable for tropical development.  Development or not, this feature is a rainmaker for parts of the Sunshine State.

The Weather Prediction Center shows Central Florida, North Central Florida, and Southwest Florida will see the heaviest rainfall in the days ahead. The heaviest will fall where the frontal boundary stalls and lingers. 2-4″+ is expected in Tampa Bay, with isolated higher amounts near the coast. This will be spread out through mid-work week. Localized flooding is possible at times, especially when training sets up.

We are also watching a tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Convection is disorganized Sunday with some dry air nearby. Slow development is possible in the days ahead as the disturbance moves west at 10-15 mph.  Models aren’t too impressed with development of this feature. Officially as of Sunday morning there is a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development the next 5 days. The next name is Emily.