A weak area of low pressure we’ve been watching for a few days, Invest 99L, is increasingly unlikely to gain any tropical characteristics over Florida. In combination with a cold front and nearby upper low, the area of low pressure enhances showers and storms this weekend in north central and central Florida. As high pressure builds in over the Northeast U.S., the pressure gradient will tighten. Gusty winds are likely Sunday through mid work week, especially on the east coast of Florida. These strong onshore winds will also bring some minor coastal flooding around high tide to the coastal northeast Florida.

Upper level winds increase across north and central Florida in the wake of a frontal boundary. At the same time, an upper level low in the eastern Gulf enhances wind shear near Invest 99L too . These winds aloft are unfavorable for tropical depression development. Invest 99L merges with a cold front late Saturday and Sunday.

Tropical characteristics or not, the disturbance is a big rainmaker for some. The heaviest will fall across northeast Florida near the coast from Jacksonville to Daytona Beach. The European model estimates 3-4″+ for Jacksonville and Daytona Beach through midday Monday. It will be an unsettled weekend in central Florida too with periods of rain/storms.

Elsewhere, Lee is no longer tropical in the north Atlantic. Maria transitions to an extratropical system and will become a remnant low by Saturday evening. It races northeast toward the United Kingdom early this work week. Wind shear will keep a tropical wave near the northeast Caribbean from developing. Heavy rain is still likely the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through late Sunday. Sadly, these areas are recovering from Irma and Maria.

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean in early and mid October. Long-range models hint that pressure will be lowering late next week. It’s too early to pin point exactly where.

As we get set to close out the work week, we’re watching an area of disturbed weather central Cuba. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this a 50% chance of development over the next few days as it moves northward and eventually up the east coast of Florida.

A weak area of low pressure is likely to form through the day on Friday as this disturbance moves over the Florida Straits. Any time you have an area of low pressure in a favorable environment over very warm water, it has to be watched closely. That being said, even if we do see something develop, it would likely be weak with minimal impacts. The one thing we can count on though is increased rain chances across most of the state through the weekend and into early next week. Rain totals will be on the order of 1-3″ across a lot of Central and South Florida, with isolated higher amounts possible especially in South Florida.

We’re getting into the time of year when ‘homegrown’ activity in the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean become more prevalent. Fitting into that mold, many models as of late have hinted at lowering pressure across the western Caribbean late next week. It’s something you’ll hear us talk more about as we get closer to that time frame, but for now it is just reminder that hurricane season is not over and we need to stay prepared. Hopefully we’ll get through the next few weeks unscathed and we’ll be home free, as things quiet down greatly in November.