Ophelia Headed For Ireland; Watching Caribbean Disturbance

Ophelia became the 10th consecutive hurricane of the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season mid-week over the north Atlantic. It is rare for hurricanes to form this far east. On Saturday morning Ophelia is the furthest east Atlantic major hurricane in history. This is according Dr. Phil Klotzback of Colorado State University. Ophelia is the sixth major hurricane of the season. As 11 AM EST Saturday max sustained winds are at 115 mph. The core of the storm will pass south of the Azores Saturday evening and early Sunday, but squalls will reach the Southeast Azores. Ophelia will transition to a non tropical system over cooler waters as it approaches Ireland Monday. While it will be an extra tropical system during this time, it will still bring tropical impacts. Hurricane force wind gusts and heavy rainfall are likely Monday and early Tuesday EST.

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We’re also watching a broad area of low pressure near the Leeward Islands. Upper level winds are hostile in the short-term. As of Saturday morning there is a 40% chance this becomes a tropical depression/Tropical Storm Philippe over the next 5 days. It may pass near Bermuda this work week, but is no threat to the U.S..

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Ophelia Soon To Be Our 10th Hurricane Of The Season

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to get organized and will soon become our 10th hurricane of 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Sea-surface temperatures in this part of the Atlantic Ocean aren’t incredibly warm, but upper-level winds are favorable for slow intensification.

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Ophelia will head east-northeast over the next few days and eventually make more of a northward turn through the weekend. It is currently forecast to stay west of Portugal this weekend, before bringing gusty winds and rain to Ireland early next week.

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It has been a season for the record books so far. Through today, October 11th, we’ve had 15 named storms – 9 of which have been hurricanes, and 5 of those 9 became major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). On average through this date, we only have 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

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To add to that, the 9 hurricanes we’ve had this season have been consecutive – Franklin to Nate. The last time we had 9 or more back to back hurricanes was 1893!

This season has been remarkable in so many ways and there’s still another 50 days to go before it’s over. Let’s hope it stays quiet until then.