The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season may not be over just yet. The last couple of days we’ve been watching an area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean and Central America. So far, land interaction has been the main limiting factor, but conditions should be a little more favorable over the next day or so as this disturbance (Invest 93L) moves slowly north into the Northwestern Caribbean.

While this an area that is notorious for late-season hurricanes, model trends have not been particularly concerning as of late. As 93L moves into the southern Gulf over the weekend, it will be merging with the next cold coming across the Southeast and into Florida. This front will introduce stronger upper-level winds, likely preventing 93L from developing any further. Nonetheless, it bears watching. Regardless of development, heavy rains are headed for South Florida this weekend.

The second to last month of the 2017 Atlantic season winds down. On Saturday there are no areas of interest and no tropical cyclone development is expected over the next 5 days. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean stirs up convection near Central America. Pressure will stay general slow in this area for the next several days.

Long-range computer models have been back and forth on possible development in the western Caribbean at the end of October or early November. The 0Z Euro shows no signs of an organized area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean through Thursday October 26th. The 06Z GFS also shows no sign of tropical depression development.

We’ll keep an eye on this region over the next 5-10 days. Looking ahead to November, tropical cyclone development is less likely, but not unheard of. Five percent of named storms form in the last month of the Atlantic season. November Climatology shows any activity typically forms in the western Caribbean and drifts northeast.