A disorganized area of showers and storms sits midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The disturbance will remain nearly stationary for the next few days. There is a minimal chance of development over the next 5 days.

On Thursday morning, NOAA released its updated outlook for the 2018 hurricane season. As expected, they have decreased their overall expectations – now expecting 9-13 named storms, with 4-7 becoming hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. These numbers are near to just below historical averages. The updated numbers do include the 4 named storms (2 hurricanes) we’ve already had this season.

The primary limiting factors will continue to be cooler than normal waters and unfavorable wind patterns across the much of the central Atlantic. In addition, a developing El Nino may further enhance unfavorable upper-level winds across this area toward the end of the season. All this being said, it’s important to stay prepared. Active season or not, all it takes is one storm.