We’re well past the peak of hurricane season, but October can often present us with tropical issues as well… especially along the Gulf Coast. In some ways, October is almost a higher-risk time of the season for folks along the eastern Gulf Coast in particular. The reason being is that storms tend to form in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf this time of year and head north. With this kind of approach to the U.S., many locations on the eastern Gulf get put on the ‘bad side’ of the storm, which can lead to storm surge issues, very heavy rain, and even a tornado threat. This isn’t to say that next week’s possible storm will create these issues, but it does have the potential to, and residents in these areas should be watching things closely and checking back for updates over the next few days.

So, where are we right now? There is a broad area of low pressure stretched across Central America – a somewhat common feature this time of the year. Sometimes this can help spin up a storm. In the last day or two, the likelihood of that happening has increased. At this point, there’s a pretty good chance we’ll have Tropical Storm Michael in the southern Gulf early next week.

The afternoon model runs of GFS and Euro are still painting pretty different pictures for this system as it nears the Gulf Coast next week. Below you’ll find the ensemble member ‘low locations’ for both models. These are basically different runs of the same model, each with slightly tweaked equations and variables. The GFS ensemble members (top) continue to favor a slightly stronger system tracking further east, generally toward the Florida Panhandle. The Euro ensembles members (bottom) still show a slightly weaker system tracking further west, generally toward Louisiana. Both are viable solutions at this point, and it will interesting to see what shifts, one way or the other, take place in new model runs over the next 48 hours. While it’s not a guarantee, storms that have formed in this area historically do tend to turn east at some point in the Gulf. We’ll update you on how things shape up through the weekend.

Model images courtesy of weatherbell.com

The disturbance in the western Caribbean that we’ve been watching for the last few days continues to battle moderate to high wind shear. For the time being, this is keeping any convection well to the east of the broad area of low pressure. As this area drifts slowly north through the weekend into early next week shear will begin to lessen, and it’s possible a tropical depression or weak tropical storm will form.

Up until now there, there hasn’t been a lot of model agreement. However, the latest (12z) run of the GFS has jumped on board with the Euro in a big way, showing Tropical Storm Michael or even Hurricane Michael heading toward the central Gulf Coast next week. It’s just one run of one model, but we’ll have to see if the trend continues. It’s something that we’ll be watching closely through the weekend, but at the very least, expect a slug of moisture heading into parts of the Southeast next week – leading to increased rain chances and the potential for localized flooding. Stay tuned.