A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has a slim chance of development. Wind shear and dry air are still prevalent in the tropics. It is in an area unfavorable for organization, so has a 0% chance of development over the next 2 days. But as it nears the Greater Antilles during the middle of next week we may see some organization.

In 2016, Hurricane Otto formed late in the month and was a rare Atlantic to Pacific basin storm. It strengthened to a category 3 storm and crossed over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Heavy rain and flooding killed 18 people with some areas receiving nearly a foot of rain. The storm set several records. It was the latest hurricane to form in a calendar year in the Caribbean Sea and the strongest hurricane on record so late in a calendar year. Otto is the only hurricane known to cross over Costa Rica and had the southernmost landfall in Central America.

We are now in the final month of Hurricane Season and November is typically a quiet month. No development in the tropics is expected for the next 5 days. Cooling waters and strong wind shear help to limit development. While troughs coming off the east coast help to steer storms away from the United States.

On this day last year, Tropical Storm Rina developed but was a relatively short lived storm. Rina only strengthened to a tropical storm and did not impact any land areas.