This upcoming week we’ll be watching the northeastern Gulf closely for possible tropical development. This is something that models have started to get on board with over the last couple of days.

The setup is a trough, currently over near the mid-Mississippi river valley, that will be diving southeast toward north Florida. As this emerges over the northeastern Gulf, a surface low may start to spin up by the middle of the week.

The last few runs of the Euro model have been particularly consistent and shown a deeper low developing, while the GFS has lacked consistency and is showing a weaker low in recent runs. If anything does develop, it would likely stay weak – a tropical depression, or low-end tropical storm at most. Whether it’s just a blob of moisture or something more, models have been consistent in tracking it west along the northern Gulf Coast later in the week.

Above: Saturday 12Z Euro run valid for next Friday morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

Above: Saturday 12Z GFS run valid for next Friday morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

The biggest threat will be heavy rainfall through north and central Florida, westward along the north central Gulf Coast. We’ll keep you updated in the coming days.

The Atlantic has been quiet ever since hurricane season began on June 1, and it looks to be staying that way as we head into July.

The typical breeding ground early in the season is the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. It’s usually a quiet month, but activity has been even further suppressed by persistent moderate to high levels of wind shear (25-50 kts) across these areas – making it tough for anything to get organized.

Courtesy: TropicalTidbits.com

There has also been a vast Saharan Air Layer (Dust off Northern Africa) in place across the Atlantic. At times we’ve had pockets of this dust and dry air  move over the Caribbean and Gulf. It makes for some vibrant sunsets, but creates a hostile environment for tropical development.

Courtesy: CIMSS / University of Wisconsin – Madison

Long-range model runs are showing no areas of concern in the Atlantic for at least the next 7-10 days.