There are still 2 tropical waves that we are monitoring but neither is very likely to develop over the next few days. One is sitting in the Eastern Caribbean Sea and the other is moving west in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

We have been talking about the wave bringing heavy rain to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for the past few days. The wave remains disorganized and unlikely to organize as it will continue land interaction and move northwest. It may cause flooding in some islands before it heads towards the Florida Straits and Bahamas late week. No need to worry, the impact for us will be an increase in rain on Friday and Saturday.

The wave off the African coast is also disorganized and not of concern for the next few days. In order to strengthen the wave would have to overcome strong winds and dry air to the north, which looks unlikely. This weekend it has a marginal chance of organizing as winds become slightly more favorable. It will continue to move west over the Atlantic Ocean.

Pretty much the entire Atlantic basin isn’t all that favorable for tropical waves to develop right now. There is quite a bit of dry air, and pockets of wind shear as well. Yes, we have a couple areas of interest right now, but that’s all they are.

The first is a disturbance (Invest 95L) that is currently in the process of moving over the island of Puerto Rico. This has brought some locally heavy rain to the Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic as well. This will head toward the Bahamas and South Florida over the few days, but development odds are very slim. More than likely this will simply aid in higher than normal rain chances across Central and South Florida over the weekend.  There’s no reason to be concerned about this right now.

The second area we’re watching is in the far eastern Atlantic, just off the coast of Africa. This will take several days to move across the open ocean, during which time development is not likely. As it nears the Caribbean over the weekend, development may become a bit more likely. Plenty of time to watch.

We’re about to head into the heart of hurricane season. Since 1950, the months of August and September have accounted for over 60% of named storms.