This morning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their usual update to the hurricane season outlook as we enter the historical peak period of August through October.

In the initial season outlook, issued back in May, NOAA predicted a total of 9-15 named storms, 4-8 of which becoming hurricanes, 2-4 becoming major hurricanes. So far we’ve had near-average activity in the Atlantic. There have been 2 named storms, one of which (Barry) briefly became a hurricane.

In the update released this morning, NOAA has bumped up the total number of expected named storms for the season to 10-17, 5-9 of which are expected to become hurricanes. This slight increase is mainly due to the dissipation of El Nino in the eastern Pacific, which should result in more favorable wind patterns across the Atlantic basin. Overall, there is now a higher likelihood of an above average season (45%). These outlooks do not indicate anything about the number landfalls we may, or may not have. It is important to remember though, all it takes is one storm.

As mentioned above, we are entering the historical peak period of the hurricane season – which peaks on September 10.

Even though we’re entering the active part of hurricane season, we are expecting quiet conditions for the next several days. Tropical waves continue to develop but don’t organize into anything other than a cluster of showers and storms.

A couple of factors are keeping the waves from developing, dry air and pockets of strong wind shear. You can see on the Saharan Air Layer Forecast, dust extends from the coast of Africa into the Eastern Caribbean through Thursday.

In the graphic above, light blue and green indicate areas of stronger winds. Notice there are several pockets of strong winds along Africa’s coast into the Atlantic and over the Caribbean. Parts of the Caribbean will see heavy rain associated with the tropical waves but that is the extent of tropical activity into the weekend.