Dorian has only moved about 35 miles in the last 15 hours. To put that into perspective, you could walk the same distance in less time. The island of Grand Bahama has been getting absolutely pounded, and it will continue through the rest of the day before the storm finally starts to move north tonight.

Max sustained winds have weakened to 150 mph for the time being, but Dorian is still an incredibly powerful and dangerous hurricane.

For Florida, Dorian’s nearly stationary motion is a good sign. It signifies the breakdown of the ridge to the north, and means that the storm will start to lift northwest, and eventually north, as it gets picked up by the trough digging into the Southeastern U.S. While a landfall along the East Coast is still a possibility as Dorian moves north, the most likely scenario is the storm paralleling the coast just offshore. It’s going to be a very close call.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend out only about 30 miles to the west from the center of the storm. So, the ‘safe zone’ so-to-speak would be Dorian staying about 50 miles off the coast. While the chances of that happening are good, residents along Florida’s east coast, especially north of the Jupiter Inlet, need to be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best.

Above: 00Z ECMWF model run wind gust speeds. Subject to change based on Dorian’s proximity to the coastline.

It should be noted that even if the core of Dorian stays safely offshore, storm surge will still be a problem along the coast Tuesday evening through the day Wednesday as Dorian’s slow movement to the north will keep many areas in strong onshore flow for at least a few hours.

The storm will no longer be a problem for Florida by Thursday. However, folks along the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina need to be monitoring the progress of the storm very closely the rest of the week, as significant impacts will be possible if it hugs the coast. Dorian will be safely out to sea by the weekend.

Dorian has slowed to a crawl as it moves over Grand Bahama Island. They will endure hurricane conditions nearly all day as Dorian is only moving west at 1 mph. It remains a category 5 storm with 165 mph winds and higher gusts. The winds and storm surge of 18 to 23ft will devastate the island.

The track continues to keep the center of Dorian offshore as it parallels the east coast of Florida, but it will be close. Tampa Bay is looking at minimal impacts with gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday and scattered storms. Eastern Polk and Highlands counties may see a few tropical storm force wind gusts, but the greatest impacts will remain closer to the east coast.

Hurricane watches and warnings are in place along the east coast. Dorian is a slow moving storm and will generate large waves and surge along the east coast for nearly 2 days. Beach erosion and coastal flooding are likely. It will steadily weaken as it moves north through the middle of the week.

Hurricane force winds extend 45 miles out from the center and the strongest winds will remain on the east side of the storm. Currently Dorian is siting about 100 miles east of West Palm Beach. The closer Dorian’s track shifts towards land the greater wind, storm surge, and heavier rain the east coast will experience.

Our focus is on Dorian but we are watching other areas in the tropics as well. The wave in the Gulf of Mexico is better organized than yesterday and may become a tropical depression in the next few days. But it is headed away from Florida and moving west toward the coast of Mexico. A trough of low pressure to the east of Dorian continues to show signs of organization and gradual development is possible as it moves north towards Bermuda. The area in red is showing signs of organization and located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as it moves northwestward in the Atlantic. The area in yellow off the African coast, is associated with a tropical wave expected to develop and head west towards the Cabo Verde Islands.