Dorian is sitting just off the South Carolina coast with 115 mph winds. The storm strengthened as it moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Rain and storm surge are already impacting Georgia and the Carolina coastlines. North Carolina has seen numerous tornado warnings this morning as rain bands wrap around the storm and move into the state.

Hurricane force winds may impact the Carolinas into Friday. Dorian is expected to take more of a northeastward turn tonight and pick up speed on Friday, coming very close to the North Carolina coastline.There will be some fluctuations in intensity today followed by a slow weakening through Saturday. Storm surge of 10-12 ft is possible south of Myrtle Beach. Wilmington could see 8-10 ft surge. They are also looking at 6-12″ of rain with isolated 15″ totals.What was Tropical Storm Ferdnand has dissipated as it moved over Mexico yesterday. Tropical Storm Gabrielle remains poorly organized with 50 mph winds. It is not expected to strengthen as it remains in an area of dry air and wind shear. But this weekend conditions become more favorable. It will continue moving northwest in the open Eastern Atlantic not affecting any land masses.This disturbance in yellow northeast of Dorian that we have been watching is entering more unfavorable conditions and likely won’t develop. It will remain over the Atlantic, with no impact to the United States. We are still expecting the wave off the coast of Africa in orange to develop into a tropical depression early next week. We will monitor its westward movement in the Atlantic, but it is still several days away from impacting any land areas. There is minimal chance, only 10% of development for the area of low pressure in yellow to the east of the Leeward Islands. It will slowly move northwest.

Hurricane Dorian now has winds of 105 mph and is a category 2 hurricane. It is skirting Florida’s east coast keeping the strongest hurricane force winds offshore. But tropical storm force winds are still being felt along the coast.

Even though the hurricane force winds are staying offshore in Florida, water is still a concern. Storm surge and big waves are impacting Florida’s east coast, with 5-7ft surge possible from Port Orange to Jacksonville. And 5-7ft surge is possible along the Georgia and Carolina coastlines as well. These areas are also looking at 3-10″ of rain. The Carolina’s should closely monitor Dorian’s progress as the center and strongest winds will get very close to the coastline as the storm moves northeast.

We are in the peak of hurricane season with 3 named storms in the Atlantic, a disturbance and another tropical wave is forecast to come off Africa’s coast that needs to be watched.

The tropical wave (in orange) is expected to emerge later today between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. It will be entering a favorable environment for development and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. This area needs to be watched, but it will be 7-10 days before it potentially reaches the Caribbean. The other area in orange northeast of Dorian, is a disorganized disturbance but it could strengthen into a depression over the next couple days as it moves northeastward away from Bermuda. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of the disturbance.

Tropical Storm Fernand is sitting in the western Gulf and headed west into Mexico. It has 50 mph and will weaken as it moves inland later today. South Texas could see 2-4″ of rain with isolated 6″ totals.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is sitting out in the Atlantic with 40 mph winds. It will continue to move northwest over the Atlantic into early next week with no threat to the United States.