Tropical Storm Helene is still on track to strengthen into a hurricane today as it moves through the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Helene is expected to intensify quickly on Wednesday, eventually becoming a major hurricane as it jogs next to Florida’s West Coast.

Thursday afternoon is when the storm will be just off the coast of Tampa Bay – around 100 miles offshore. Helene is expected to make landfall Thursday night along the Florida Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Helene gathering strength Wednesday morning. Winds have increased, the pressure has dropped and the storm is showing signs of trying to organize.

Once it passes the Yucatan Peninsula, there will be nothing in the storm’s path to stall additional strengthening. Storm surge is going to be life-threatening across the Big Bend. Worst case scenario is 15 feet of surge above normal tide.

We’re expecting 5-8′ of storm surge in the Tampa Bay Area, 6-10′ from the Anclote River to Chassahowitzka, 4-7′ from Longboat Key to Englewood.

And just the shear size of Helene is incredible. It will probably cover 2/3 of the Gulf and that will come with a massive wind field. Storm surge, damaging winds and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the storm’s center as a result.

Wave heights will reach up to 40 feet when the storm passes west of Tampa Bay Thursday afternoon. Once it gets just north of us, strong onshore flow will pick up and will cause the worst of the storm surge.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out nearly 200 miles from the storm’s center, which is why even Florida’s East Coast is under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Here is a closer look at impacts by area: