The Atlantic Basin is showing signs of life after a busy start, followed by an eerily quiet stretch to end August.
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There are two areas we’re watching, both jumping on our radar in the last 48 hours.
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One is in the main development region between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles. This has a low chance to develop at the end of this week – only 20%.
This isn’t a typical wave coming off the coast of Africa, but rather a disorganized area of thunderstorms that will move into a more favorable environment for strengthening. This area will generally move west-northwest the next few days at around 10-15 mph.
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At the end of this week or early next week is likely when we see any development. That’s why the odds of formation remain low in the next 7 days and only 0% over the next 2 days.
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If the system organizes into a tropical storm, it will be named Francine.
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The second spot flagged by the NHC is an area of low pressure spinning a few hundred miles SE of Bermuda. A combination of dry air and hostile upper winds will limit much strengthening.
There is a 10% chance of development over the next 2 days and the next 7 days. It will generally move north to northeast around 10 mph.
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The official peak of hurricane season is September 10th.