Ever since Hurricane Ernesto, there has been a quiet stretch of inactivity across the North Atlantic. This period is forecast to extend into September as no new named storms are expected to form over the next seven days.

A driving factor of this is how plumes of Saharan dust are continuing to get swept across the Tropical Atlantic, effectively drying out most disturbances before they can show signs of development.

Additionally, tropical waves (the seeds of tropical storms and hurricanes) are encountering relatively cool sea surface temperatures off the coast of Africa. This contrasts the abnormally warm waters to their west that they are struggling to reach.

It’s important to note that we have over two-thirds of our hurricane season to go, and long-term signals are still pointing toward an active season. September 10th marks the climatological peak of the season, with the month of September historically producing more U.S. land-falling storms than any other month.