Things have been fairly quiet in the tropical Alantic over the last few weeks and it looks like we’ll keep the trend going to close out the month of July and at least for the first few days of August. The National Hurricane Center predicts tropical development is not expected over the next 5 days.

Along with areas of pockets of higher wind shear, Saharan Dust remains the primary limiting factor across much of the Atlantic keeping things fairly tame. Tropical waves prefer an environment with ample moisture and light wind shear for optimal growth. 

Typically, the plumes of dry, dusty air in the upper parts of the atmosphere works in our favor in the early part of hurricane season. However, its beneficial effects are only temporary. By mid-August, supply of the Saharan Air Layer begins to subside allowing tropical waves a more conducive environment to grow and organize into more formidable systems. This coincides with the peak of the season when water temps are warmest and tropical activity typically increases.