Getting set to wrap up the first month of the hurricane season, and we have a fairly robust tropical wave moving across the central Atlantic. Not exactly a common area for development this early in this season; but with a favorable environment to work with, anything is fair game.

Slow organization has been taking place the last couple of days with this; and with very little working against it, a tropical depression seems likely to form by midweek as it crosses into the Caribbean Sea. Other than some gusty winds and tropical downpours for parts of the Lesser Antilles, no impacts to land are expected through that time.

At this point, there is fairly good model consensus on a continued westerly track into Central America by the end of next week. This track is mainly due to a broad ridge across the southern half of the US. Some strengthening is indeed possible before this reaches Central America, and Tropical Storm Bonnie is not out of the question. Storm or no storm, this will likely lead to a flash flooding threat for parts of that region.