A tropical wave near the southern Bahamas will be moving west toward the Florida Straits over the next day or so, and eventually into the southern Gulf sometime late Tuesday. The environment in the Gulf is somewhat conducive for development, so we’ll be watching closely as this disturbance heads toward the western Gulf Coast later this week.

As of Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center has development odds only at 20% over the next five days, and recent model runs aren’t doing a whole lot with this. Most likely, this will simply be a slug of moisture moving west through the Gulf that will help to enhance rainfall coverage across parts of south Texas, and perhaps Louisiana, late next week.