Karen continues to struggle to find sustained organization. Convection has been abundant today, but majority of it has been displaced west of the storm’s low-level center.

The environment that Karen is currently in should allow it to maintain its intensity for another day or two as it makes a small loop and begins to turn west-southwest over the weekend. This westward motion, thanks to a building ridge over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic, will take the system into an area of moderate-high wind shear and dry air. At this point, confidence is high that Karen will dissipate late in the weekend or early next week before it can cause any issues for Florida or the Bahamas.

Over the open waters of the central Atlantic, Lorenzo is now a powerful category 4 hurricane. It is one of the most powerful hurricanes – this far east in the Atlantic – on record. Lorenzo will stay over open ocean, curving to the north and eventually northeast over the next 5 days. The only land area potentially in its path will be the Azores by the middle of next week.

Heading into the month of October, the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico quite often become the main area of development. Some long-range models are hinting at the possibility of lowering pressures in this general area in the next 10-14 days. It’s too far out to really say anything more than that at this point, so for now rest easy, and we’ll be checking back in soon.