As of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Dorian had winds max winds of 110 mph – nearly a category 3 storm. A small eye is now visible. Intensification should continue over the next few days.

Dorian should start take on more of a WNW motion through the weekend as it moves toward the Bahamas and Florida. Latest runs of the GFS and Euro are in much better agreement in regards to track, with landfall in South Florida on Tuesday somewhere between Vero Beach and West Palm Beach.

Keep in mind, while we have some agreement now, these are simply two singular model runs. The takeaway for now is that we expect a turn toward the Bahamas and Florida this weekend, followed by a turn to the north on Monday or Tuesday. That will end up being the difference between Dorian moving up I-95 and the storm staying offshore and paralleling the coast, and as a result a huge difference in regard to impacts.

We’ll be looking for continued agreement and consistency as we go forward, and when our confidence rises in that numerical guidance we can start talking about specific impacts. For now, as we’ve said that last couple days, all of Florida’s east coast needs to be preparing for a major hurricane.

Below: 00Z ECMWF model run valid at 12pm Tuesday.