At 11am Wednesday, Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 25 miles SE of St. Croix. Max sustained winds have increased to 70 mph.

Dorian will continue to bring tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. The good news for Puerto Rico is that the storm should pass just to its east, so most of the island should avoid the brunt of the weather.

Once the storm moves north of these islands, it’ll be over open water, with low levels of wind shear and much less dry air around. This favorable environment should lead to strengthening as the storm moves toward the Bahamas. At this point, it seems likely that there will be a strong, if not major hurricane, near the Bahamas this weekend. That track after point remains a big question.

Wednesday morning models runs still have solutions that range from a storm plowing through Central Florida, to a landfall in the Carolinas. Until we get some more clarity, it’s tough to talk specific impacts. We’ll be updating you frequently with new blog posts over the next few days.

Above: 0Z Euro model run valid for Labor Day.

Above: 6Z GFS model run valid for Labor Day.