Tropical Storm Dorian has 60 mph winds and is moving W at 14 mph. The compact storm will make a shift to the northwest later today into Tuesday as it moves into the Lesser Antilles.

There is a wide spread in model guidance on intensity of the storm. Some models suggest it will become an open wave as it enters the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Others show steady strengthening to a category 1 hurricane midweek. It is too early to tell the timing and magnitude of impacts in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, & the Virgin Islands. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of the storm closely. We could see some moisture in Florida from the system into the Holiday weekend.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in place for Barbados and other parts of the Lesser Antilles. These areas will begin to see impacts late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Including tropical storm force winds, 2-4″ of rain, locally 6″ are possible as well as life threatening rip currents.

While there is low confidence in the intensity forecast, models are in better agreement on the track. Showing the northwestern turn heading towards Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands mid to late week.

We continue to watch an elongated area of low pressure about 275 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras in the Atlantic Ocean. Conditions are still favorable for development into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow.

This system will stay well offshore in the Atlantic and move northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes late week.