The disturbance in the western Caribbean that we’ve been watching for the last few days continues to battle moderate to high wind shear. For the time being, this is keeping any convection well to the east of the broad area of low pressure. As this area drifts slowly north through the weekend into early next week shear will begin to lessen, and it’s possible a tropical depression or weak tropical storm will form.

Up until now there, there hasn’t been a lot of model agreement. However, the latest (12z) run of the GFS has jumped on board with the Euro in a big way, showing Tropical Storm Michael or even Hurricane Michael heading toward the central Gulf Coast next week. It’s just one run of one model, but we’ll have to see if the trend continues. It’s something that we’ll be watching closely through the weekend, but at the very least, expect a slug of moisture heading into parts of the Southeast next week – leading to increased rain chances and the potential for localized flooding. Stay tuned.