Harvey has been rapidly organizing over the last 24 hours and is now a category 1 hurricane. As of 2pm Thursday, max sustained winds were at 85 mph and it was moving NNW at 10 mph. Hurricane warnings are now in effect from Port Mansfield to Matagorda, Texas and a storm surge warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

Rapid strengthening is expected to continue today and tomorrow, with Harvey expected to become a major hurricane before landfall late Friday night. Max sustained winds by that time may be upwards of 125 mph and storm surge (with tide) heights along the coast may reach as high as 10-15 feet. Perhaps the biggest threat for South Texas though will be extremely heavy rainfall. After landfall, Harvey will slow down and sit over the region for several days. This will allow for rainfall totals of 15-20″ with isolated amounts as high as 30″, creating life-threatening flooding in many areas.

Storm surge inundation map below image courtesy of NOAA.

If Harvey does indeed make landfall as a major hurricane (category 3+), it will end a streak of nearly 12 years that the U.S. has gone without a major hurricane landfall (4,323 days). The last storm to do so was Wilma back in October, 2005.