The area we’ve been watching off the southeast coast has a very limited chance of developing and is expected to fizzle out.

It currently has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days and the environment becomes even less favorable past that as dry air moves into the area.

Outside of this, things are quiet as Saharan dust drifts across the Atlantic and parts of the Caribbean.

This dust significantly dries out the atmosphere and suppresses tropical activity. The Saharan Air Layer starts about 1 mile above the surface and has 50% less moisture than standard tropical air.

Bertha is the next name in line this season.

On average, the B storm forms by July 17.

We are monitoring the development a stationary front that will likely produce a broad area of low pressure off the Southeast coast of the United States by the middle of next week. While the majority of weather forecasting models do not believe this system will become tropical, there is a low chance it could organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center is currently highlighting (shown in yellow) with a 20% chance of development within the next week. Early indications suggest that if anything develops it would likely meander back towards the Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coastlines. If development occurs, that timing would be towards the end of next week.

Regardless of development, enhanced rain chances are anticipated across the Southeast U.S. this week.