Jamaica is bracing for Hurricane Melissa, which rapidly intensified into a strong Category 4, with 140 mph maximum sustained winds.

The storm is currently about 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and moving at an extremely slow pace of 5 mph.

This slow movement is going to be one of the most problematic parts of Melissa as it brings days of torrential rain, flash flooding, storm surge and likely landslides due to the mountainous terrain.

Melissa is forecast to continue to strengthen before hitting the southern coast of Jamaica late Monday – early Tuesday, with peak winds expected to be near 160 mph.

Rainfall of 15 to 30″ is forecast for portions of Jamaica and Haiti into Wednesday. Eastern Cuba will likely get 6-12″ of rain, with isolated totals up to 18″.

Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will come with large and destructive waves.

Melissa will continue moving west Sunday and will start to curve north-northeast just south of Jamaica. From there, it will pick up speed as a trough off the southeast coast of the U.S. starts to move Melissa along.

The storm’s center will cross over eastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and reaching the vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.

Melissa is now a stronger hurricane, with winds likely exceeding 100 mph. It is now forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane by Monday.

This hurricane will remain south of Florida and is not a threat to the United States.

Jamaica remains within the forecast cone, with many weather models suggesting an eventual landfall on the island early next week.

A multi-day (potentially catastrophic) rain event begins tonight for Jamaica.

Flash flooding and landslides will be the primary threat, alongside a life-threatening storm surge on the southern coast early next week. Multiple feet of rainfall will be possible in some spots due to the hurricane’s slow movement. Southwestern Haiti and eastern Cuba will likely experience the same flash flooding and landslide concerns from this storm.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica. The storm’s most damaging winds will be found near Melissa’s center given a close pass or landfall on the island. A tropical storm warning continues for southwestern Haiti, with hurricane watches in effect for that same area and parts of Cuba.

The Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda will need to carefully monitor Melissa’s progress over the next few days.