The tropical wave we’ve been watching now has a low chance to form. The odds for Invest 91L are down to 30%.

The disturbance has been battling dry air and moving so slowly that it has not been able to pull away from the dust and strengthen. This Saharan air layer has about 50% less moisture, which really limits a tropical system.

Invest 91L will continue moving west around 10-15 mph but many models don’t develop it further.

If it holds together, the disturbance will be near the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday – Wednesday.

So far this season, we’ve had 6 named storms and Hurricane Erin. Gabrielle is the next name in line.

The G named storm typically forms on September 3rd.

We are still tracking Invest 91L as it drifts across the central tropical Atlantic. The National Weather Service has now dropped its 7-day development odds to 60%.

In the last 24 hours weather model support has dropped substantially, as drier air brought on by Saharan Dust has shrouded the disturbance. This had led to an additional drop of the odds of development over the next two days to 30%.

While many forecast models now dissipate the system, many still develop it into at least a tropical depression as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. These islands will still need to watch the progression of Invest 91L carefully before it possibly reaches the islands by the middle to end of next week.

The disturbance is moving very slowly (less than 10 mph at times) and will give the United States well over a week to monitor it if it forms.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list is Gabrielle.