We began the season with an Invest on day 1 of the season. While this system is small and dealing with wind shear and dry air on its southern side, it has managed to become our first tropical storm of the year. Tropical Storm Arlene was named with the 1pm CDT advisory with winds of 40 mph.
While the proximity of the storm to Florida is helping to enhance afternoon thunderstorm activity, the track of the storm will move it away from Florida this weekend. This will move it into an area with stronger wind shear and dry air should limit any chance of more intensification of this system.
Mid-level dry air is present on the southern and southwestern side of the storm which also appears to now be wrapping in toward the center of the storm. The center of circulation is on the edge of deeper convection and partially exposed.
The “lopsided” look to the storm is because of the strong southwesterly shear over the storm and environmental conditions become even more hostile across the southern Gulf of Mexico as it is expected to move southward.
The track of the storm moving into a more hostile environment will quickly weaken this storm over the weekend just NW of the western tip of Cuba. The energy from this will likely help to create some downpours over Cuba over the weekend.
The list of 2023 names begins with Arlene and ends with Whitney.
Halfway through, it was one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. Shortly after however, the switch was flipped; and we ended up with a season that many folks will not forget for the rest of their lives.
14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes – the final tally tells the story of a near-normal season. Two of those fourteen storms though – Ian and Nicole – crossed the state of Florida, each life-changing in their own right for thousands of residents.
In late September, we began tracking a tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea. With just about everything working in favor of a strengthening system, it was clear from the beginning that this was going to be an incredibly dangerous storm for someone along the eastern Gulf Coast. Unfortunately, that came to fruition on the afternoon of Wednesday, September 28.
The eye of Hurricane Ian nearing landfall. Photo: tropicaltidbits.com
Ian roared ashore in Southwest Florida as a strong category 4 storm with max winds of 150 mph. While, the winds left a swath of damage that stretched up through central Florida, it was the storm surge that brought utter devastation to coastal many coastal areas. Peak surge heights of 12-18 feet were recorded along the southwestern Florida coast. Sadly, Ian claimed the lives of 139 people in Florida, making it the deadliest storm in the state’s history since 1935.
Residents inspect damage to a marina as boats are partially submerged in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida
For many long-time residents of Southwest Florida, Ian brought back so many memories of Hurricane Charley 18 years prior. It turns out, their paths were eerily similar.
As Ian crossed over to the east coast of Florida, strong onshore flow brought additional flooding and erosion. We didn’t know it at the time, but this foreshadowed what was to come a few weeks later.
In early November, a weak Hurricane Nicole approached Florida from the east. While the winds were manageable, days of strong onshore flow lead to relentless wave action pounding the coast, ultimately leading to massive erosion. As a result, hundreds of coastal homes either crashed into the Atlantic, or were left precariously dangling off a cliff. Nicole was a reminder in the worst way that every storm is different and presents its own dangers.
Several homes sit damaged from severe beach erosion from Hurricane Nicole in Daytona Beach, FL. Photo: Brandon Clement / LSM / FOX Weather
Another oddity of this season to point out, Ian and Nicole had nearly identical landfall points as Charley and Jeanne in the 2004 season – both sets of storms were exactly 43 days apart! History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
While hurricane season comes to a close, the rebuilding and restoration process in the wake of Ian and Nicole continues and will take many more months, if not years in some areas.
