The second to last month of the 2017 Atlantic season winds down. On Saturday there are no areas of interest and no tropical cyclone development is expected over the next 5 days. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean stirs up convection near Central America. Pressure will stay general slow in this area for the next several days.

Long-range computer models have been back and forth on possible development in the western Caribbean at the end of October or early November. The 0Z Euro shows no signs of an organized area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean through Thursday October 26th. The 06Z GFS also shows no sign of tropical depression development.

We’ll keep an eye on this region over the next 5-10 days. Looking ahead to November, tropical cyclone development is less likely, but not unheard of. Five percent of named storms form in the last month of the Atlantic season. November Climatology shows any activity typically forms in the western Caribbean and drifts northeast.

Time ran out for Invest 92L east of the Bahamas. Wind shear is on the rise Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Upper level winds are not conducive for tropical development in the days ahead as this feature merges with a frontal boundary.

No tropical development is expected for the next 5-7 days. The ECMWF shows no areas of concern through next Sunday. The long-range GFS hints that the western Caribbean is worth watching next week. It’s a ways off, but this makes with climatology.

Former Hurricane Ophelia brought heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding to Ireland Monday. It is the strongest storm of its kind to hit Ireland since Debby in 1961. The core of the non tropical low moved ashore in southwest Ireland Monday morning EDT. According to the Irish Meteorological Society a gust of 97 mph was reported in Roches Point Co. Cork. Fastnet Rock, about 4 miles offshore of the coast, saw a gust of 109 mph. The remnants of Ophelia will brush the western United Kingdom late Monday EDT.

Closer to home Invest 92L shows some signs of life early Monday. The area of low pressure east of the Bahamas is broad in nature, but it is producing wind gusts near tropical storm force. Convection increases early Monday under moderate westerly shear. Upper level winds become even less conducive for development mid-week as Invest 92L lifts northward and merges with a frontal boundary. This energy may pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. If this feature gains tropical characteristics it will called Philippe.

Upper level winds become less favorable for organization of Invest 92L Tuesday and Wednesday. Notice all the red indicating high shear around the southeast U.S.. These hostile upper level winds shift east into the western Atlantic mid-week. The graphic below is courtesy NOAA/The University of Wisconsin at Madison.

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to get organized and will soon become our 10th hurricane of 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Sea-surface temperatures in this part of the Atlantic Ocean aren’t incredibly warm, but upper-level winds are favorable for slow intensification.

Ophelia will head east-northeast over the next few days and eventually make more of a northward turn through the weekend. It is currently forecast to stay west of Portugal this weekend, before bringing gusty winds and rain to Ireland early next week.

It has been a season for the record books so far. Through today, October 11th, we’ve had 15 named storms – 9 of which have been hurricanes, and 5 of those 9 became major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). On average through this date, we only have 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

To add to that, the 9 hurricanes we’ve had this season have been consecutive – Franklin to Nate. The last time we had 9 or more back to back hurricanes was 1893!

This season has been remarkable in so many ways and there’s still another 50 days to go before it’s over. Let’s hope it stays quiet until then.

Nate become the 4th hurricane of the hyperactive 2017 season to strike the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) this weekend. The last season with four or more U.S. landfalling hurricanes was 2005. It made two landfalls.The first near the mouth of the Mississippi River Saturday evening, the second near Biloxi Mississippi at 1:30 AM EDT Sunday as a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph.winds. The heaviest rain, strongest wind, and greatest storm surge was felt near and just east of the center.

Nate will be remembered for its coastal flooding, a threat often underestimated with tropical system. A storm surge of 6.3 feet was recorded in Pascagoula Mississippi. Social media was blasted with photos and video of flooding in the Golden Nugget Casino in Biloxi. Mobile Alabama was also hit hard with coastal flooding. A storm surge of 5.4 feet was recorded there. The graphic shows the rise in water in Pascagoula, Mississippi  courtesy NOAA.

Nate weakens rapidly Sunday morning over land. As of 11 AM it is a tropical depression. Max sustained winds are at 35 mph as it races north-northeast at 24 mph. It will weaken to a tropical depression Sunday. Nate is big rainmaker for portions, of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and eventually the Northeast U.S through Monday.

Here is the 11 AM forecast track from the NHC. Nate will quickly lose tropical characteristics over the next 24-36 hours.

3-6 inches of rainfall, with isolated high amounts are expected from central Gulf coast up through the southern Appalachians. The Weather Prediction Centers estimates 7-8″+ are possible in spots. This train of moisture brings heavy rain the Tennessee Valley and the Northeast U.S. too. Here are rainfall estimates from the Weather Prediction Center through Tuesday morning.

Tropical Storm Nate has been back out over open water today and slowly getting better organized. At 8pm Friday, the storm was located about 90 miles NE of Cozumel and racing NNW at 22 mph. It will slide past the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf tonight.

The storm still lacks an inner core, but there is still plenty of time for one to develop. If and when that happens, the environment is favorable for rapid intensification to occur – which the National Hurricane Center made note of in their afternoon discussion. As of now, the NHC is expecting Nate to become a hurricane before making landfall on the LA/MS coast late Saturday night.

Nate will bring with it the full gamut of impacts that you would expect with a land-falling tropical system.

Heavy Rain:

Nate is a rather fast-moving system, so freshwater flooding is likely to be less of an issue than coastal flooding due to storm surge along the Gulf Coast. 3-6″ with isolated amounts of 10 inches is possible from the central Gulf Coast states into the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this weekend. This may result in flash flooding in some areas.

Storm Surge:

Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of
the northern Gulf Coast. The hardest hit areas will depend on the exact track of Nate as it comes ashore, but right now the highest storm surge numbers are projected to be in coastal Mississippi. Places like Gulfport and Biloxi are all too familiar with devastating storm surge thanks to benchmark storms like Katrina (2005) and Camille (1969). Current projections have 10-12’+ of storm surge in these areas. A storm surge of even 4-6′ may stretch as far east as Pensacola, FL.

Tornado Threat:

Land-falling tropical systems are notorious for quick-moving, weak tornadoes and Nate will be no different. Tornadoes in tropical systems are most often found in the northeastern quadrant of the storm, so in the case of Nate, that puts areas from extreme SE Mississippi through the Florida Panhandle and much of south Alabama at highest risk.

We’ll be monitoring the progress of Nate through the weekend, so be sure to check back here for updates.