The stalled frontal boundary off the east coast and over the Florida Peninsula continues to bring heavy rain to the state. Parts of Central Florida have seen 12″-18″ of rain since Friday morning, and more is on the way. The European model is rather bullish on rainfall estimates over the next few days, depicting several inches in some locations near Tampa Bay. Flooding in this area will likely continue to be an issue.
Meanwhile, along that frontal boundary a weak area of low pressure has formed and meandered into the western Atlantic. While water temperatures are warm, wind shear is not conducive to tropical development. Many of the models have tried to form more areas of low pressure along that front over the coming days. However, nothing tropical is expected at this point to come of that. The European model keeps a broad area of low pressure along the front through the weekend.
Meanwhile, as we get deeper into the summer, we are getting closer to our Cape Verde storm season. And just like that, we are monitoring Invest 94L in the eastern Atlantic – a weak tropical wave with some general cloudiness and convection. The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 94L a low (20%) chance to develop by Monday morning as it tracks westward.
At this point in the season, there is still too much dry air across the Atlantic basin for a tropical wave to survive the entire track across the Atlantic. A look at the Saharan Air Layer (via University of Wisconsin) shows a fairly robust wave of dry air traversing the basin.
In addition to an active SAL, wind shear remains moderate over the storm and across the Atlantic. Finally, an issue that will plague 94L as well as many storms in the Atlantic this year is the ocean temperature. Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic, especially along the main development region, are well below average. SST anomalies are 1°-2° below average in this basin.
Across the globe in the Pacific, things have been temporarily quiet for the last week or so, a condition not all that uncommon for this time of the year. However, there are several areas of interest that must be monitored in the coming days.
The first area to note above is Tropical Depression Eight-E. While weak, the storm may still pose a risk to interests near the Hawaiian Islands toward the weekend. Most models at this point take the storm as a weak tropical depression south of the Islands but it will still need to be monitored.
The bigger area of concern across the Pacific is the area of low pressure just southeast of T.D. 8-E. This disturbance is being given a 60% chance to develop by Friday morning, and a 90% chance to develop over the next 5 days. If it does develop, most of the models keep is on a straight westward path toward the Hawaiian Islands, potentially arriving at some point early-to-mid next week. Regardless of strength at that point, the storm would still pose a threat to the island chain. We will have to monitor this disturbance closely.