The tranquil spell continues in the Atlantic Basin with no tropical cyclones on the horizon for least the next week. A very weak area of low pressure develops near a stalled front east of Florida but this boundary should dissipate over the next 24 hours. Overall, dry air and moderate wind shear keep convection limited in the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic. While there are already 4 named storms in the Atlantic in 2016 the east Pacific is off to a slow start. So far there are no named storms. By late June typically there are already 2 named storms, one of which reaches hurricane strength. A tropical wave over Central America has a low chance of tropical depression development as in emerges in the east Pacific in the coming days.
As we approach the beginning of the July the breeding grounds for tropical development shift some. In July storms tend to ride the Atlantic Bermuda High and can track northwest into the western Atlantic or westward through the Caribbean and up into the Gulf of Mexico. Keep in mind only 8% of named storms form during the entire month of July. The season sees peak activity in August and September when the Cape Verde season gets going.
Long-range computer models really don’t show much happening as we head into the first week of July. Here’s the Euro next Wednesday July 3rd. Notice a low deepening west of Mexico in the east Pacific a perhaps weak low pressure along a front east of the U.S..
Invest 95L has looked less impressive over the past 24 hours. Convection is disorganized and the weakening area of low pressure will move inland over east Mexico early Saturday. While it will bring pockets of heavy rainfall to the region (as did Danielle) a tropical depression is highly unlikely. The odds of development are bumped down to 0% per the NHC.
None of the reliable computer models develop anything in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. Even the GFS has backed off on possible low pressure in the Gulf around the 4th July (good news of course). Below is the forecast 7 days from now on Friday July 1st. With the exception of moisture in the western Caribbean there are no areas of note. While 2016 already has 4 named storms in the Atlantic it not uncommon to see a tranquil spell in late June and early July. On average only 6% of named storms form in June. That percentage only climbs to 8% in July.
The fourth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic season, Danielle, was short-lived. It dissipated Tuesday morning over mountainous east Mexico. Limited convection remains early Tuesday evening. Danielle dumped several inches of on east Mexico but brought minimal moisture to south Texas.
Looking ahead no tropical cyclone development is expected over the next 5 days. Only 34 named storms have formed from June 21st-30th in the entire Atlantic Basin since 1851, so this is pretty common for this time of year. The graphic below is courtesy Google Earth. The long-range GFS still suggests low pressure may develop in the western Caribbean in 7-10 days and possibly head into the Gulf. It’s way too early to be certain on that but worth monitoring.
The active start to the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season continues Monday. Tropical Storm Danielle closes in on east Mexico and brings very heavy rain and the threat for mudslides to the region. Some areas may see 6-10 inches of rainfall with up to 15 inches in spots early this work week. Fortunately, limited rainfall will affect already soaked south Texas. Danielle will make landfall by Monday night and be shredded apart over mountainous terrain by Tuesday. Tropical Storm Danielle is the 4th named storm in 2016. In a typical Atlantic season the fourth named storm forms on August 23rd, so this is two months ahead of schedule. Danielle is the earliest 4th named storm on record in the Atlantic basin. The previous record earliest “D” storm was Tropical Storm Debby back in 2012. While 2016 is off to a record fast pace this does not mean the rest of 2016 will be just as busy. Early season forecasts predicted a near or slightly above average Atlantic season ( on average there are 12 named storms, 6 hurricane and 3 major hurricanes).
After Danielle dissipates it looks to be quiet week ahead in the Atlantic Basin. 7-10 days from now that may change as the long-range GFS still hints that low pressure will develop in the western Caribbean and may move in the Gulf of Mexico by the 4th of July. Below is the forecast for next Wednesday June 29th (10 days from now). The reliable European model isn’t sold on development. This is a ways off but something we’re watching closely. The pattern makes sense with late June/early July Climatology.
A tropical wave near the Yucatan peninsula has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next few days. Fortunately a strong ridge over the Southwest U.S. will likely keep the moisture from this disturbance south of drenched Texas. As Invest 94L pulls away from the Yucatan and into the warm Bay of Campeche low pressure may close off and a short-lived tropical depression may form. The NHC puts those odds at 40% by Monday. Moderate westerly shear pushes the deepest convection east of the tropical wave near Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula. Upper level winds stay somewhat hostile in this region over the next few days which could keep Invest 93L from gaining tropical depression strength. Proximity to land could also interfere with brief tropical development.
The 06Z WRF model shows that by Sunday morning a closed low/tropical depression may form over the Bay of Campeche. Due to proximity to Mexico this will only be a rainmaker for a small part of Mexico. The disturbance doesn’t have much time to thrive over the very warm southwest Gulf before in moves inland early work week.
There are no other areas of interest over the next 5 days. While low pressure has developed along a cold front and will deepen east of the Southeast U.S. Sunday and Monday no tropical characteristics are expected. This is primarily a mid and upper level feature. It will help drag in some drier air over Florida through early work week and humidity will be noticeable lower. The Euro brings what is ever left of this feature into the Northeast as it merges with a trough.
Wednesday marks two weeks since the start of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Since Colin dissipated last week there have been no big areas of interest. As mentioned in previous blogs our long-range computer models have toyed with the idea that weak low pressure could spin up in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend or early next week. The NHC now highlights this possibility. A tropical wave will likely cross the Yucatan and end up over Mexico or in the Bay of Campeche in 4 or 5 days. As of Wednesday morning there is a 20% chance a tropical depression may form by Monday. Steering currents could bring this future low into east Mexico.
Both the Euro and GFS show weak low pressure in the southwest Gulf Sunday and Monday. The graphic below shows the Euro vs GFS at 10 AM Sunday. If low pressure does develop it will very close to land in this region. Both models keep the deepest moisture through early work week south of drenched southeast Texas.
Over the weekend low pressure is also expected to develop along a frontal boundary over the west Atlantic. Our computers are still split on where it may head and if it will have at least some tropical characteristics. The Euro is still on board with low pressure deepening off the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday. High pressure over the north Atlantic may then guide this low towards New England. This is complicated solution and still several days away.
Meanwhile the GFS develops low pressure a little farther south over the weekend. This would be over more favorably warm Gulf stream waters, which may allow for subtropical development. However, the GFS keeps this very weak and eventually creates an open wave over Florida. Keep in mind the NHC hasn’t highlighted on this possibility. We’ll keep a close eye over the next few days.
It’s been one week since the third named storm of 2016, Colin, made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida. Since Colin dissipated there have been no major areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin. This isn’t unusual at all since the first named storm of the season doesn’t typically even form until July 9th. If you’re curious on average the 3rd named storm forms August 13th so we are two months ahead of schedule. On Monday afternoon high pressure is in control in the Gulf. One frontal boundary continues to weaken east of the Bahamas and another one will be lifting north in the days ahead. There is a disturbance in the east Pacific that may develop in the coming days (marked by the orange “X”) but it will likely parallel Mexico and head out to sea.
Long-range models hint at a few areas worth watching over the weekend and early next week. Both the Euro and GFS suggest low pressure will develop east of the U.S. but vary some. The latest ECWWF show low pressure deepening off the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday and heading back northwest towards the U.S. Sunday and Monday guided by a blocking high. It’s too early to say if this low will have any tropical characteristics. Northwest Atlantic water temperatures are still cool. Both models have also been back and forth on pressure lowering in the Bay of Campeche. The 12Z ECWMF lowers pressure Saturday afternoon but is not very aggressive.
The 12Z GFS model develops weak low pressure off the Southeast U.S. late Friday and Saturday. The low then meanders back westward towards NE Florida/Georgia. Water temperatures in this part of the Atlantic are much warmer so we’ll keep a close eye. Again, all of these solutions are 5+ days away which is still a ways off. The Monday morning GFS run backs off on low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian suggests strong a fairly potent area of low pressure in this region (not out of the norm for this model). We’ll see how things pan out over the next 5-7+ days.
While the 2016 Atlantic season is off to an active start there are no areas that we’re watching for tropical development over the next few days. It’s important to note that a busy start does not mean the rest of 2016 will be active too. Typically only 6% of named storms form during the entire month of June. While there are a few tropical waves out there no models suggest tropical depression development in the short-term. On Saturday an upper low interacts with a tropical wave over Central America and stirs up convection. A trough brings scattered downpours to east Mexico. Another tropical wave near South America and east of the Lesser Antilles is too far south for development. An old frontal boundary continues to weaken east of the Bahamas too.
Since 1851 only 35 named storms have formed between June 11th and June 20th. Most of these are in Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean or western Atlantic. The graphic below is courtesy Google Earth.
Long-range models like the Euro suggest low pressure may develop and meander off the Southeast U.S. in about 7-10 days. This is obviously a ways off but worth keeping an eye on. As shown on the graphic above climatology favors the waters near the Gulf Stream in this region this time of year.
Despite the fact that Colin is long gone from the state of Florida, it is still having indirect impacts. Remnant deep tropical moisture remains draped across central and south Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be around for Wednesday and Thursday in an already saturated area.
Colin itself did dump quite a bit of rain in spots. There was a fairly widespread 3″-6″ but a few locations were much wetter than that. Here are a few of the higher rainfall totals from Sunday through Tuesday in the Tampa Bay area.
Because of the heavy rainfall and the threat for more heavy downpours over the course of the next couple days, parts of central and south Florida remain under a Flood Watch. Even just a couple of inches of rain could lead to additional flooding.
While the season has been off to an active start with three named storms (and two of the three making landfall in the US), climatology shows us that this has no bearing on the tropical activity through the remainder of the season. The models don’t show much over the next 7-10 days in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic. However, with the remnant moisture of Colin hanging around a stalled frontal boundary, we’ll have to watch the potential for a quick spin-up of tropical activity. The European has on-and-off showed something weak developing later this week east of Florida (near the Bahamas). This would move east though and away from US interests. While the models have been inconsistent in showing such development, it still is something to watch in the coming days, especially with warm sea surface temperatures in the vicinity.
Tropical Storm Colin merges with a trough and becomes post-tropical at 11 AM EDT Tuesday. Interestingly enough it is stronger now than it ever was as a full-blown tropical storm. The earliest 3rd named storm in the Atlantic on record races northeast at 36 mph with max sustained winds of 60 mph. Squalls and gusty winds exit the Outer Banks Tuesday afternoon. Colin may strengthen further Tuesday before it steadily weakens over the cool north Atlantic throughout the week. It will be south of Iceland by Saturday morning.
As has been the case all along with Colin showers and storms are displaced east and south of its center. The storm brings one last band of flooding rains to Tampa Bay early Tuesday. Training showers setup Tuesday morning and brought flash flooding to Pinellas and Hillsborough county. This convergence band weakens some and gradually shifts south throughout the day. A Flood Watch continues until 8 PM Tuesday and some areas may pick up an additional 1-3″ of rainfall.
Moisture from Colin brought multiple squalls through Tampa Bay since Sunday. By far the heaviest rain fell after midnight Monday and lasted through the morning commute Tuesday. Unfortunately there was also a high tide early Tuesday morning which ran about a foot above normal and exacerbated flash flooding in low-lying areas. Below are 24 hour rainfall totals in the hardest hit areas. 6-8+” fell near St Petersburg and also in parts of Tampa and north central Hillsborough county.
While Tampa Bay was hit hard with rain and wind so was north central Florida. A few areas outside of Tallahassee saw near 10″ of rain. Southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas saw rainfall too as Colin raced northeast. Below are 48 hour rainfall totals since 8 AM EDT Tuesday courtesy of NOAA.
Wave heights continue to decrease on Florida’s west coast Tuesday. Meanwhile surf will be slower to subside off the Carolinas. Wave heights +10 ft are possible through the afternoon well offshore (according to the WaveWatch III model).
Officially, there are no areas of future tropical development expected in the Atlantic over the next 5 days. With that being said we’ll be keeping an eye on a stalled boundary near and over Florida throughout the remainder of the week. It wouldn’t be unheard of for low pressure to briefly spin up here as suggested by the GFS model. We’ll keep an eye on future trends.
In the east Pacific TD-1E meanders near the south-central Mexico coast. The disorganized area of low pressure will bring flash flooding and the threat for mudslides to this region over the next few days. It will make landfall Wednesday.