We continue to monitor both Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression #14. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the future tracks but there is the possible scenario of both systems heading to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Laura continues to slowly strengthen and move to the west in the general direction of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression #14 is slowly becoming more organized and is expected to become a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Could we have two hurricanes join forces and make a mega hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico? 2020 has been an unbelievable year, but it is NOT going to give us a “mega” hurricane. There is the possibility the two tropical systems could interact with each other. This is known as the Fujiwhara effect. If one system is much stronger than the other it will tend to absorb the weaker system. It does not make the remaining system stronger, it just gets the moisture from the weaker system. If the two tropical systems are about the same strength then they will tend to move around each other and change course. How much interaction determines how much they change course.

Advisories were started on the area of low pressure in the central Atlantic at 5pm on Tuesday. It had gone through a burst of convection and was looking much more organized yesterday.

This morning the depression is not looking as well defined. Southeasterly shear and dry air have disrupted the organization and circulation. Over the next few days it will be moving into an environment of very light shear and warm SST which should allow the to intensify into Tropical Storm Josephine. It is very possible this could become a hurricane despite the current forecast from NHC.

After a few days the environment begins to change. Southwesterly shear will increase and reliable computer models are consistent with a gradual weakening trend. This combined with a trough moving off the east coast of the US will weaken and help to turn what is expected to be Josephine more northward. There is still a lot of uncertainty for the long range forecast of Tropical Depression 11, but it will have several obstacles it deal with.