A small but vigorous tropical wave has moved across the Atlantic surrounded by large amounts of dry air. Even with unfavorable conditions of dry air the upper level winds have diminished enough over the past 36 hours that the trough of low pressure has shown persistent convection.

Invest 94L will continue to move WNW and conditions will remain only marginally conducive to see anymore development. The biggest impacts will be an increase in moisture and storm activity along its path and along the Florida coastline over the next several days.

Computer models are in very good agreement showing the disturbance paralleling the east coast of Florida as it is picked up by a digging upper level  trough moving into the eastern US by mid-week. This should keep the heaviest rains along the coast or just offshore.

For now, the disturbance has handled the dry air but as upper level winds increase as it begins to interact with the approaching trough conditions will not be conducive for development. This does start to signal the change in the season where tropical waves begin their trek across the Atlantic and we must watch for the development of these as the Atlantic waters warm and conditions become more ideal.