It’s been an active couple of weeks across the Atlantic basin. Our attention at the moment is focused not only Hurricane Florence, but on two new potential systems in the far eastern Atlantic.

As of 11am EST, Hurricane Florence was a category 2 storm with winds 105 mph – weakening a bit over the last 12 hours or so after encountering an area of higher wind shear. It was located about 1140 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and there is potential for a close encounter with the tiny island toward the middle of next week.

The forecast for Florence is a tricky one beyond 5 or 6 days. With multiple steering features in play, there is still substantial model spread regarding the ultimate path of Florence during the second half of next week.  It’s simply too early to say how close it will come to a brush with the east coast of the United States. At this point, folks from the Carolinas to New England should keep tabs on the progress of Florence over the next several days.

In the far eastern Atlantic, two tropical waves rolling off the coast of Africa have a medium to high chance of development over the next few days. The first is Invest 92L – a designation simply identifying an area that is being monitored for tropical development. This system should become Tropical Storm Helene at some point in the next couple days and move westward across the open Atlantic over the next week.

The tropical wave behind it currently has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves off Africa. If this develops, the next name on the list would be Isaac.